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ОКБ: «хорошие» заемщики пошли за ипотекой, а «плохие» — за кредитами наличными

Аналитики Объединенного кредитного бюро (ОКБ) оценили уровень риска потенциальных заемщиков, обращавшихся за кредитами в банки в 2016—2017 годах, а также уровень одобрения кредитных заявок.

Заемщики были разделены на группы в зависимости от их скорингового балла и вероятности дефолта (выхода в просрочку 90+ в течение 12 месяцев с даты выдачи кредита). В исследовании участвовали заемщики с максимальным уровнем риска (вероятность дефолта — более 26%) и заемщики с минимальным уровнем риска (вероятность дефолта — менее 4%).

По результатам исследования выяснилось, что доля высокорисковых заемщиков, обращавшихся за кредитом, выросла в 2017-м с 9% до 14%. При этом доля заемщиков с низким уровнем риска сократилась с 41% до 33%. Вместе с тем доля одобренных заявок в 2017-м снизилась с 61% до 43%.

Сильнее всего доля «плохих» заявителей выросла в сегменте кредитов наличными — с 9% до 13%. А доля «хороших» заявителей сократилась за прошлый год на 7 процентных пунктов (с 41% до 34%). Уровень одобрения заявок в сегменте кредитов наличными за 2017 год также значительно снизился (с 64% до 45%).

Рост доли заявителей с высоким уровнем риска отмечается и в сегменте автокредитов, за прошлый год она выросла с 8% до 12%. Одновременно с этим доля заемщиков с минимальным уровнем риска в сегменте автокредитов снизилась сразу на 8 п. п. (с 45% до 37%). В сегменте автокредитов также отмечается снижение уровня одобрения (с 51% до 49%).

В сегменте кредитных карт доля заявителей с высоким уровнем риска является наиболее высокой среди всех кредитных продуктов, но за прошедший год она сохранилась на уровне 20%. При этом доля низкорисковых заявителей в этом сегменте выросла с 23% до 24%. Уровень одобрения заявок по кредитным картам в 2017 году немного вырос (с 33% до 35%), но по-прежнему остается самым низким среди всех кредитных продуктов.

А вот в сегменте ипотечных кредитов наблюдается самый значительный рост доли заемщиков с минимальным уровнем риска (с 54% до 59%). При этом доля «плохих» заявителей снизилась с 5% до 3%. Также нужно отметить самый значительный рост уровня одобрения заявок в этом сегменте: за 2017 год он вырос с 46% до 68%.

«Благодаря значительному снижению процентных ставок в 2017 году реализовался отложенный спрос на ипотечные кредиты. Заемщики, откладывавшие решение взять ипотеку на протяжении 2015—2016 годов, снова пошли в банки. Рост числа заявок от «хороших» клиентов обеспечил в свою очередь рост количества одобрений и новых выдач. Также начиная с III квартала 2017 года стали набирать популярность программы рефинансирования ипотеки, которые изначально предлагаются заемщикам с положительной кредитной историей, что также могло привести к росту доли «хороших» заявителей в сегменте ипотеки. При этом в сегменте кредитов наличными, напротив, отмечается рост как доли, так и количества заемщиков с низким скоринговым баллом вместе со снижением уровня одобрений по кредитам. Это, скорее всего, обусловлено тем, что на фоне оживления рынка розничного кредитования в банки пошло больше заемщиков, испытывающих необходимость в заемных средствах на повседневные расходы или погашение уже существующих кредитов, по которым имеются просрочки платежа», — отмечает гендиректор ОКБ Даниэль Зеленский.

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